Forough Kanani, a sociologist, warned that the transitional period poses the greatest danger of replacing one dictatorship with another. Speaking at the conference “Transition and Safeguarding Citizens’ Rights in Iran” in Oslo on 31 August 2024, she stressed: “Transition is the critical stage where authoritarianism is most likely to return, as it often coincides with restrictive laws and fragile institutions.”
She argued that Iran has not yet reached regime change and the “Mahsa movement” cannot be deemed defeated. Should the system fall, she said, the nature of the transition will be decisive: the shorter and more institutionalised, the stronger the democratic outlook. A new legal framework—covering a constitution, transparent elections and independent institutions—must guarantee democracy through authenticity, depth and durability.
Kanani warned of the financial oligarchy tied to the regime, particularly the second generation of elites, who, despite their modern façade, retain networks of money and influence that could threaten democracy. Political parties, she added, must be legally grounded and subject to effective oversight to prevent extremists from exploiting the transition.
Citing Karl Popper, she noted that the key test of government is not how it takes power but how it leaves it. Elections alone, she said, do not ensure democracy—Venezuela being a stark example. Free media and a robust civil society are essential safeguards. “Independent journalism can prevent the narrowing of social participation,” she declared, stressing the need to rebuild unions, NGOs and professional associations.
She also called for clarity on the future role of military and paramilitary forces within a transitional justice framework, arguing that restoring trust in law requires fair processes that enable justice without fuelling revenge. Finally, Kanani underlined the importance of drawing on international expertise while guarding against foreign interference: “We must learn from global experience but not allow outside powers to dictate our destiny.”
Translated from Farsi via machine translation and lightly edited for clarity.